In other handset news, Nokia and BlackBerry maker RIM, two manufacturers that are falling out of favor with investors, made major announcements last week. At their self-hosted Nokia World Show, Nokia touted that they are still the industry leader with 260,000 smartphone activations a day (compared to Android’s 200,000 and iOS’ 80,000). Unfortunately, perception is reality, and while Nokia still has the lead, they are suffering from a perception problem that John Biggs at MobileCrunch so eloquently describes. Along those same lines, RIM announced earnings last week. While the results blew past analyst expectations and a bright future was painted by management, the reality remains that Android continues to rapidly close the gap on RIM’s dominance in North America according to the latest ComScore stats. Both RIM and Nokia had better not be content to rest on their laurels because as they say in the mutual fund world – “past performance is not an indication of future performance.” I’m not surprised that Nokia and RIM are doing well when you look at past and current stats. When you look at trends, though, both Nokia and RIM should be concerned, and I mean very concerned.

As usual, I wanted to wrap up this week on a fun note. Motorola is launching a Star Wars themed R2-D2 Droid handset later this year on Verizon. While the hardware and wallpapers for the device look cool, they are not nearly as cool as this prototype Star Trek Communicator themed Nokia device. It’s quite a shame that only 14 were made back in 2008. I’m not even a Star Trek fan, and I found this concept prototype just too cool. Definitely worth spending the 9 minutes to watch the video.

Kicking things off, rumors about the iPhone becoming available outside of AT&T continue to grow, which given the results of a JD Power and Associates study highlighting AT&T’s poor network performance, can’t happen soon enough for many people. The chic rumor is that the iPhone is coming to Verizon given Apple’s orders for CDMA chipsets. While this is what most people want, another possibility raised last week is that Apple is creating a “world-phone” iPhone. In other words, one device that is compatible with mobile networks around the world. I think this a better possibility than a Verizon iPhone. A “world-phone” iPhone could also lead to the phone landing on T-mobile, which is another rumor that is gaining momentum. Of course, Apple’s lips are sealed, so I don’t suspect that we will know anything until the day after it happens, at best!

Speaking of AT&T, executives at the company have implied that the new BlackBerry Torch sales are not meeting expectations. Not a good sign for BlackBerry, who is continuing to struggle against the rising tide of Android devices. It is also rumored that many of BlackBerry’s best customers, like financial institutions, are starting to experiment with iPhone and Android devices. As I mentioned before, BlackBerry would be best served to keep their “bread-and-butter” enterprise customers happy and forget about competing in the consumer market.

In Android news, T-mobile announced the G2 device – the follow-on to the G1 who many consider “the original” Android device. The device looks great on paper, but the best part could be that it will run a stock Android build. In other words, no carrier crapware or special UI’s like Sense, TouchWiz or MotoBlur. If my NexusOne is any indication, this means that it will be one of the first devices to get new Android builds, which I’ve found to be one of the best, if not the best, feature of the NexusOne.

Another hot rumor last week is that Microsoft will launch Windows Phone 7 October 11 in a flashy New York City event. Microsoft has committed over $500MM to the launch of their latest mobile OS, so I would expect this event to be quite the party. Unfortunately, I don’t think that I’ll be on the invite list, but I’m willing to tag along as someone’s guest if you need company for the week….

Finally, Nokia is preparing to launch the Nokia N8, their latest attempt to head off the iPhone and Android juggernaut. In order to build buzz for the device, they released a rather racy, but not over the top, interactive video featuring a self-described “sizzling hot” model. Is Nokia worried that the N8 cannot stand on its own, or is this a genius move by Nokia to create buzz about the device? I’ve embedded the video below, and I’ll let you be the judge.

To start off, Microsoft announced the line up of Xbox Live games that would be available on their mobile Windows Phone 7 platform. I don’t play Xbox (Playstation is my platform of choice), so I couldn’t tell you if the game list is interesting or not. However, what I do find interesting is Microsoft’s mobile strategy. It appears that Microsoft is going to tie its mobile success to the Xbox platform. I wouldn’t call this a genius strategy as much as I would consider it a high risk bet. In my opinion, Microsoft has already lost this round of the mobile OS game to RIM for the enterprise, Apple for the high end, and Android for the general consumer. Since no one has gone after the hardcore gamer, Microsoft is filling an underserved niche to build a loyal following. On the other hand, it will take time and lots of resources, i.e. money, to grow the niche. Given Microsoft’s deep pockets, they are one of the few companies that can pull it off, and I like the fact that they are going after a niche in the market rather than trying to immediately compete head to head with Apple, Google and RIM, although I am sure they will end up there soon enough.

Behind the Microsoft announcement, rumors were leaked that Sony is working on an Android-based Playstation mobile phone. Adding phone capability is the next logical move for the PSP, and not because people want to use it as a phone. It is for the over the air download capability and the social gaming aspects that can occur using the mobile network as its backbone. Given Microsoft’s moves with its Xbox/Windows Phone 7 platform, Sony must do this, and quickly, to keep from losing customers and market share in the highly lucrative gaming console market. Of course, all of this could become a moot point if Google and Verizon get their way and regulate traffic on the mobile internet (OK – I’ll admit that last comment was a bit tongue-in-cheek, but I couldn’t resisit).

Finally, to wrap-up this week on a gaming note, Mashable pointed out 10 classic PC games that have been reborn on the iPhone. I was a bit surprised by how many of them I recognized, and played! It brought back memories of my college days and made me wonder how me and my college roommates ever graduated! Take a look and let me know which games you recognize and which was your favorite. Just for the record, mine would be Prince of Persia, although Doom runs a close second.

One company that is seeing declines in market share is RIM with their BlackBerry platform. BlackBerry has been the dominant smartphone in the US for what seems like forever. However, unless you are addicted to email or are a business user, BlackBerry’s hardware and overall user experience lags behind the iPhone and Android. As BlackBerry users are coming off contract, it’s obvious they are switching platforms. BlackBerry attempted to stem their losses with last week’s launch of the BlackBerry Torch 9800. While it closed the gap on features, it still does not put it on the same level as the iPhone or Android. At this point, RIM needs to stay focused on its bread and butter, the enterprise. As I pointed out in an article last week, RIM cannot serve both enterprise users and consumers with the same platform. They have a dominant position in the enterprise that they need to protect. So while the consumer market is where all the media attention is, RIM needs to stay focused on who’s paying their bills.

In the end, I see Android winning the market share game by dominating the middle and low end of the smartphone market, Apple winning the high end of the market, which is the most profitable, and RIM winning the enterprise. Left on the outside looking in are Nokia, Microsoft and HP. I’m not so sure that any of these three can carve out a piece of the market as I don’t think the smartphone is big enough, at least today, to support more than three strong companies.

With the hot summer handset releases behind us, who is the worldwide leader in the market? According to Strategy Analytics, Nokia (remember them?) sold the greatest share of the 308M handsets sold in Q2. Nokia’s share was 36.1%, follwed by Samsung at 20.7%, and LG at 10%. RIM, the only dedicated smartphone maker in the top 5, came in fourth at 3.6%. So while smartphones grab all of the media attention, the low-end of the market accounts for all the volume. If the market is largest at the low end, then why are all the manufacturers chasing the smartphone market? Because that’s where all the profits are. For example, Apple is nowhere to be seen on the market share list, yet they are far and away the most profitable mobile phone company.

Speaking of market share, a report on mobile search was released by StatCounter last week. At the top of the heap was Google, with a whopping 98.29% share of the market. I’m not sure how accurate the numbers are, but even if they are off by 20%, that’s still a dominant share of the market. If that doesn’t convince you that you should have a mobile presence that Google can index, then you’re losing lots of business to your competitors who do have one - without even knowing about it! Both Yahoo! and Bing, the two other big mobile search providers, account for just 1.25% of the market. On the bright side, I guess Yahoo! and Bing’s share can only get bigger, because it certainly can’t get any smaller!

Finally, just to kick start everyone’s favorite rumor mill, I am going to jump on the bandwagon and say that AT&T’s iPhone exclusivity may be coming to an end this year. Why? Well, AT&T made a statement that they are going to be the premier vendor for Microsoft’s latest mobile operating system, Windows Phone 7. I don’t understand why AT&T would back a competitor to the iPhone unless their exclusivity is coming to an end. It’s time to place your bets. I say that the iPhone is available on another carrier for the holidays, and I’ll predict T-mobile over Verizon since T-mobile’s GSM technology is the most compatible with AT&T and Apple, out of spite, wants to stick it to Verizon for their Android promoting, iPhone-bashing ads. What do you think? Feel free to sound off in the comments!

The releases of these new smartphones have not been without troubles. Even the iPhone 4.0 has had its share of issues, primarily with reception. The issue got so bad that it forced Apple to hold a press conference with Steve Jobs responding to the criticism. In Apple style, they did a great job of spinning the problem and declaring the iPhone reception as good (or as bad, depending on your viewpoint) as every other smartphone. I thought the point of paying the “Apple tax” was to be a cut above everyone else, not as good as the competition. Either way, the iPhone 4.0 is still the class of the field these days, and it certainly helped Apple post great earnings for last quarter. Whether you love Apple or hate them, one thing is certain – they are posting impressive results!

In addition to the iPhone 4.0, the Droid X from Motorola that launched on Verizon has also run into its share of issues. Screen problems are plaguing the device, although both Motorola and Verizon have been quick to step in and remedy the issue. The increasing problems with smartphone introductions leads me to believe that manufacturers are rushing devices out the door prematurely to save/gain marketshare at the expense of quality. Manufacturers need to start doing a better job of quality control in order to preserve consumers’ trust in purchasing new devices.

Finally, one large player that has been absent from all of the mobile discussion has been Microsoft. Once a leader in the smartphone market, they have become a laggard. They are trying to stem their losses with a new OS called Windows Phone 7 (WP7). Microsoft is working to push out the OS by the end of the year, and it appears on schedule as they released hardware last week to Microsoft employees and select press members for review. Initial reviews have been mixed, and I get the feeling that the first release of WP7 will be half-baked with rapid improvements planned, similar to Apple’s original iPhone release strategy in 2007. Unfortunately for Microsoft, the market has shifted dramatically since 2007. iOS and Android are mature enough that I’d be surprised if users are willing to adopt an immature smartphone platform. While Microsoft has lots of resources to place behind WP7, I predict that they will compete with HP/Palm for third place in the smartphone market behind leaders Apple (iOS) and Google (Android).

If you’ve picked up one these, or a different, handset this summer, leave a comment – I’d like to hear how your experience has been. I’d be particularly interested in hearing from anyone who picked up a Samsung Vibrant on T-mobile. It’s the most underrated phone on the market in my opinion, and variants of the device will be available on AT&T, Sprint and Verizon by this fall.

Combining those results with other reports from around the web has led me to the following conclusions:

1. For those who thought the desktop internet was huge, the mobile internet is going to blow it away.
   Mary Meeker and crew’s latest Internet Trends Report reinforced and built on the positive mobile internet outlook from their December mobile internet report. I recommend reading both reports if you are thinking about or doing anything mobile. My key takeaways from their latest report are
          1) mobile will be bigger than the desktop in five years,
          2) there will be 10x more mobile internet devices sold than desktop internet devices, and
          3) mobile usage is more about data (web usage, texting, etc.) than voice.
2. Websites will need to be not only accesible but also usable over mobile devices.
   Nielsen is one of my favorite research companies because their notes are concise and to the point. A recent Nielsen study looking at the penetration rates of smartphones versus feature phones projects that smartphone will overtake features phone by mid-2011. Why is this important? Smartphone users access data and the mobile internet a lot more than feature phone users.
3. While Apple still dominates mobile web traffic, your applications need to work across all platforms.
   Quantcast puts out a lot of great information on both desktop and mobile internet usage. They recently reported on mobile marketshare for both operating systems and handset manufacturers. Comparing the two reports against Apple’s results is interesting. In operating system market share, Apple has declined from a peak of over 75% in January 2009 to just over 60% in March 2010, while selling more units. Over the same period, Android’s market share has increased from under 8% to 17.1%. Android’s reach is expanding – rapidly.
4. RIM’s mobile web share will improve, and overall usage for the mobile web will follow.
   comScore’s February 2010 Mobile Market Share Report reinforced both Apple’s results and the Qunatcast numbers, with one major addition – BlackBerry maker RIM still leads the race with 42% of the market. Apple’s been holding steady at 25%, and Android is quickly gaining on both at the expense of Palm, Windows Mobile and others. RIM’s low mobile web share shows just how poor their platform is for web browsing, but rumor has it that BlackBerry 6.0 will sport an improved webKit-based browsing experience. When that occurs, more BlackBerry users will use the web, and there are a lot of them.
5. I expect growth rates in mobile internet usage to accelerate during the second half of this year. 
   Just like last quarter, the mobile web continues to grow with no signs of slowing. We’ve seen a better than 20% year-over-year increase in traffic to mobilesites that we host. All leading indicators, such as smartphone market share and shipments, point to increased usage of the mobile internet.

 If you haven’t put a mobile strategy in place for your marketing efforts, or worse yet, if you haven’t even looked at your web presence on a mobile phone, feel free to contact us. We’d be more than happy to answer any questions you have and help you develop an effective mobile presence for your service or business.

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Fresh out of school in the early nineties, my employer indoctrinated me into the world of the Franklin Planning system to help me keep my days organized. The system was simple yet brilliant. For those not familiar, an open planner had one page with a calendar, daily schedule, and a to-do list, and the facing page was lined and ready for notes from your events, tasks, and meetings of the day.

I started each morning with 15 minutes of Planning & Solitude where I would laboriously transfer my unfunished to-do tasks and review notes from the prior day, and then plan out my current one. The planner was such an essential part of the company culture I worked in that Franklin classes were given on a regular basis and new employees were given Franklin planner kits.

But then, in 1997, everything changed….

What is that thing?
At the end of an unfinished product development meeting, we needed to schedule a follow-on. As I opened my planner to find open slots in my schedule, the Director of our software group pulled out a little handheld device that grabbed everyone’s attention, the Palm Pilot.

He fascinated us with the functionality of his new toy, but we were skeptical of its claimed capabilities. Empty promises from other failed handheld PDA efforts like the Apple Lisa were fresh in our minds, so no one was quick to give up our day planners. I, for one, could not see how this new breed of gadget could supplant the planning system that had been engrained into my way of working for the last 6 years.

Et tu?
My first boss, Jim, was the poster child for Franklin Planning. He kept copious notes, often written in 3-point font on the pages of his planner. He could locate notes from meetings that took place years in the past and kept a wealth of information in tabs through the back of his planner that he could reference at the drop of a hat.

As Jim and I clung to our planners, we watched around us as more and more of our colleagues adopted the Palm PDAs and touted its virtues. No matter how many times people showed us the device and its capabilities, we were convinced that our planners were the gold standard for organization. These Palms would never become powerful enough to replace the information we could store and collect in our trusty planners. We laughed at those who abandoned the traditional planner for what we considered “fool’s gold.”

And then it happened.

I can still remember that day in late 1999 when Jim walked into my office with the Palm Vx. Like seeing an ex-girlfriend show up at a party with her new date, that feeling of betrayal that you know you shouldn’t feel washed over me. I should have known that one of us would succumb to the lure of the Palm Pilot. It’s attraction had become too great, and now, instead of the gadget handlers being the outcasts, we, the planner hold-outs, had become the ridiculed.

I had held out for 3 years, but it was clear that the time had come to make the transition. As the decade of the nineties came to a close, I, too, decided it was time to convert and purchased the Palm Vx.

Love at first sight
The memories of opening the box, installing the software, and performing the first HotSync still linger in the back of my mind. The device had a look and feel that was as elegant as it was simple. While expansive, the functionality of the device was easy to master. Even learning a new alphabet called graffiti was accomplished in a matter of days, if not hours.

It was exciting to move to the new way of planning and to experience what so many people before me already had - the freedom to leave that bulky planner behind and to use that wonderful piece of plastic, brushed metal and glass to peruse your calendar, take notes, and manage those pesky to-do lists. Yes, those to-do lists. No longer did unfinished tasks need to be transferred day-to-day, they automatically rolled over. What a concept!

In addition to the basics, there were also all the fun pieces. I survived so many meetings sitting in the back playing a good game of Giraffe, the graffiti challenge game were you had to create the letters before they hit the bottom of the screen, or the silly puzzle game where you had to order the numbered tiles from 1-15. When you had your PDA open and were tapping the screen during a meeting, no one could tell if you were taking notes or trying to keep busy for fear of dozing off.

Even with all that functionality, it was the United flight schedule application that made the device truly indispensable for me. I traveled alot, and I mean alot, back in those days, and primarily with United. They had an app that you could download to your device, and then update every few months with their latest flight timetables. I can’t recall the exact number of times that app saved my bacon by finding alternate flights when meetings were canceled or ran over, or when I was stuck in Chicago during one of the numerous thunderstorms or snowstorms that fell upon O’Hare, but lets just say it was a lot.

There’s got to be more to life
As much as I had become attached to my Palm, I came to realize that I needed more. By 2005, carrying a PDA and phone was getting annoying. The time had come to find a device that could combine the two. While Palm was trying to lead the market with their Palm Treo line of devices, their PDA heritage weighed them down. They continued to overinvest in the ever rapidly declining stand alone PDA market at the expense of their smartphones. Upstarts like RIM, who did not have a PDA history, entered the market and quickly surpassed Palm. By 2006, Palm began to lose its mojo, which, unfortunately, it has never regained.

No matter who acquires Palm, it will mark the end of an era. Just as we watch sports stars retire and hand the baton to the next generation, it is time for Palm to do the same in the smartphone market. It tried to make one last comeback with the Palm Pre, just like a prize fighter comes out of retirement for one last shot at the title. While the product was good, the execution was not. It’s clear that Palm has lost a step and can not keep up with the latest generation of smartphone players.

In the end, Palm will always hold a special place in the annals of technology for me. I consider Palm to be one of the forefathers of the modern-day smartphone. Their innovations in the PDA space redefined what was possible, created the market for the electronic handheld PDA, and seeded the market for more advanced devices from Microsoft, RIM (BlackBerry) and Apple. Without Palm’s innovation and advancements, the smartphone as we know it today may have never happened.

Thanks for the memories.

I’d love to hear about your experiences with the Palm line of handhelds. Feel free to leave a comment with your favorite memory, story, game, application or Palm model that you owned over the years.

So when I hear that Microsoft is going to leverage the Zune HD interface for Windows Phone 7, it gets me excited.  The Zune HD interface is the most intuitive user interface I’ve used. It groups things logically and is a breeze to navigate. You will pick up a Windows Phone 7 device and be an instant expert - trust me.

Obviously, with Windows Phone 7, Microsoft has the advantage of knowing what has worked with iPhone and Android and incorporated it into their playbook. Here are the best features they’ve copied implemented from the existing phones:

• Hardware versatility: Instead of taking the closed system approach to hardware, Microsoft is providing hardware requirements for phone manufacturers to work within. As with Android, this will allow manufacturers to differentiate their offerings and get more players to join the party.
• Apps marketplace: Microsoft is planning a marketplace for people to download apps and have development partners lined up. While I am not a fan of apps and don’t believe they matter long-term, Microsoft is doing the right thing by developing a robust app platform.
• The “reverse-mullet” approach: First generation phones took the business first, social second approach, much like the mullet haircut – business in the front, party in the back. Windows Phone 7 took its cue from the iPhone and Android by using a social first, business second approach. People love the social aspect of their phones, but want to be able to do business on them – not the other way around.

On the other hand, for some strange reason, they have also incorporated some of the worst features:

• Lack of true multi-tasking: Even Apple realizes this is a problem as they are expected to address it in the iPhone 4 OS release. Are the people at Redmond insulated that much from reality?
• App approval process: Microsoft is going to implement an app approval process similar to Apple, but with more transparency. Right! Approval processes do not work and are only going to frustrate developers and slow the growth of the app marketplace.
• No copy and paste: Given all the complaints regarding the iPhone, this one is mind boggling. Microsoft claims they know the use cases and that we don’t need copy and paste. Guaranteed this feature makes the first release patch.

Despite the shortcomings, I’m impressed that Microsoft started from scratch instead of trying to build on top of the existing Windows Mobile 6 platform. It shows just how far WinMo has fallen behind the curve. Starting over will be the best decision they ever made in mobile. I urge you to try it before you knock it.

Deep down, I believe that Microsoft will succeed with Windows Phone 7. Maybe I’m a closet Microsoft fanboy, but a strong Microsoft is good for mobile. I don’t want to see Apple and/or Google dominate mobile with their OS. The more players, the more competition, the more innovation, and the more we win. Now, if Microsoft can just stick to their release schedule of late 2010 – let’s just say that I’m not holding my breath….

For a more thorough review of Windows Phone 7 with pictures and video, I highly recommend “Engadget’s Windows Phone 7 Series: the complete guide”

The history of .mobi
Just as .gov indicates government sites, .edu indicates educational institutions, and .mil indicated military sites, .mobi was created to indicate sites that were optimized for viewing on mobile phones. The .mobi domain was approved as a top level domain in July, 2005, by ICANN, the official overseer and approver of top level domain names. Its inception was financed and backed by a number of major companies, including Google, Microsoft, Nokia, Samsung, Ericsson, Vodafone, T-mobile and others. Registration of domain names using .mobi became available in September, 2006.

According to dotMobi, close to one million sites have been registered using the .mobi top level domain since its inception, but the .mobi domain has never really taken off amongst consumers. Most of the problem is timing related, as very few mobile consumers were accessing the web using their mobile devices in 2006. All of that changed with the release of the iPhone in 2007. The iPhone and subsequent smartphone platforms made the web usable on mobile devices. People bypassed .mobi sites because they were either not aware of a .mobi domain or not happy with the reduced functionality of the .mobi sites, which were built for the most basic mobile devices and did not take advantage of the improved functionality and touchscreen capabilities of the latest devices. 

The issues with .mobi
Using .mobi is not free and comes with many issues that you need to be aware of before jumping in.

1. Increased Cost
Costs for .mobi domains are usually more than 2x the cost of regular domains. A regular domain registration usually runs less than $10/mo. whereas a .mobi domain can run $20/mo. or more. Plus, while a standard domain can service both desktop and mobile clients, a .mobi domain exists only to serve mobile devices resulting in additional domain registration costs.

2. Maintenance Overhead
Since the .mobi domain is an additional domain on top of your regular site, you need to invest additional resources to maintain the content and site.

3. Lack of Awareness
The general public is not aware of the existence of the .mobi domain. In order to get the most out of a .mobi site, you need to spend additional resources and money marketing and promoting it.

4. Poor Functionality
.mobi sites need to be designed for the most basic web-enabled phones resulting in a sub-optimal experience for smartphone users. Since smartphone users are the overwhelming majority of mobile web traffic, your .mobi site ends up service an extremely small, if not non-existent, segment of the market.

A .mobi domain is unecessary
Given the tremendous advances in mobile over the last five years, there is no reason to secure a .mobi domain. When creating an on-line presence and mobile website, you are best advised to use a “OneURL” strategy. A OneURL strategy is easily implemented using device detection code on your existing web presence and allows you to simplify your marketing by promoting one domain for desktop and mobile and by saving money through reduced maintenance and domain registration costs.

So when considering your mobile presence, don’t  use a .mobi domain – you don’t need it. If you already have a .mobi domain, drop it and start using your existing url and device detection code to service mobile visitors.

By the way. if you’re considering mobile or have an existing .mobi site and would like help or advice on your mobile presence, feel free to contact us. We’d be more than happy to help.