By signing a long-term contract that could last into 2012 according to Engadget, Apple has left the door open for its competitors by failing to service 75% of the US market, especially when surveys show that nearly half the people on Verizon would buy the iPhone if it were available.

The potential pitfalls of the exclusivity became evident today in an NPD research report showing Android as the number 2 smartphone OS behind RIM, the makers of BlackBerry. What do RIM and Android have in common? They are available on all four carriers and have handsets that come in multiple form factors at prices ranging from free to $299 on contract. By contrast, Apple is available on one carrier, has one model, and starts at $99, with the most people having to pay at least $199 to gain access.

While the AT&T arrangement may be a sweetheart deal for Apple, it could become the Achilles heel for the iPhone. As Android continues to proliferate the mobile landscape, Apple could find itself in an uphill battle when the exclusivity finally ends for the following reasons:

1. Mobile phones are bought on contract
People get locked into their phones for two years, at least. Even if the iPhone AT&T exclusivity ended tomorrow, many people would be forced to wait until their contract expired to get access to the handset

2. The gap between the iPhone and its rivals has narrowed
The Android Marketplace is rapidly catching up to Apple’s App Store. In fact, nearly all major productivity apps are available on both platforms, as well as most good games. In addition, the Android hardware is nearly equivalent, if not better than the iPhone. If you don’t believe it, then you have not put your hands on Verizon’s latest Droid model, the HTC Incredible.

3. It’s all about mindshare
Android is proliferating in much the same way rabbits multiply. The shapes, sizes and price points are out there to fit anyone’s taste. While I will never bet against the Cupertino propaganda machine, mindshare is shifting to the new game in town. Couple that with the fact that Android is migrating to devices other than phones like tablets, set-top boxes, TVs and appliances, and you begin to envision a world where it’s better to have an Android device over an Apple device.

Would marketshare be different without iPhone exclusivity? Results in countries where the iPhone is available without an exclusive carrier have demonstrated just how dominant the iPhone can be. Apple has turned away from that opportunity here in the US.

To give credit where credit is due, Apple is printing money these days. While you can’t argue the strategy to this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple is lamenting its decision to tie itself to AT&T two or three years from now.

Clearly, Apple’s biggest advantage with the iPhone is the App Store. Without a doubt, it attracts people.

Well, about a month ago, MG Siegler over at TechCrunch wrote an interesting piece entitled “The iPhone’s Peephole“. She wrote it in response to Apple’s new policy toward sexy apps in the App Store. Apple decided it was time to rid the App Store of so-called suggestive apps without providing any warning or notice to developers. Developers of those apps were miffed, and helpless.

Her underlying premise was that with the progress of HTML5, web apps have become viable - in some cases better than their desktop cousins, and that developers could avoid Apple’s whimsical and subjective App Store policies by designing in HTML5 for the mobile web. It got me thinking that Apple could eventually kill the App Store as developers frustrated over Apple’s App Store policies move their developments to web apps.

Fortunately for Apple, the lure of quick cash from the App Store is strong, and developers continue to develop for the iPhone. I almost forgot about the issue until Apple’s iPhone OS 4 announcement yesterday.

Overshadowed by the iPhone OS 4 accouncement is a statement Apple buried in the iPhone OS 4 developer’s agreement that prohibits you from developing apps “that link to documented APIs through an intermediary translation or compatibility layer or tool….” (more in-depth analyses can be found Engadget and TechCrunch).

A number of vendors, most notably Adobe, have developed tools to help developers build apps for multiple platforms: iPhone, Android, WebOS, etc. With this simple statement, Apple is effectively squashing these avenues that make it easier for developers to port their work across multiple platforms.

I expect this latest policy change to drive more developers to open platforms and web apps. As more and more people develop in HTML5, the apps will progress and get better. As more web apps become available,Apple’s advantage with the App Store will wane. In other words, is Apple slowly killing the biggest advantage they have over other mobile platforms today – their App Store?

My take is that the siren song of the App Store is still too strong, at least today. There are just too many iPhone users who are willing to pony up cash for apps. Developers would be foolish to walk away.

However, as Apple continues to strengthen its hold over the App Store and slowly suffocate its golden goose with more restrictive development policies, developers will walk. There have already been defections of high profile developers. And now that there are better mobile hardware options available, Apple could be heading toward repeating the same mistakes they made with the MacIntosh product line 25 years ago. It’s amazing how history repeats itself and how we are doomed to repeat our same mistakes….

Overall, it’s been a fun year. We started blogging back in March, not knowing what to expect. Luckily, it was a busy year in mobile, so we were never short of material to discuss. Here’s a sampling of the more interesting stories of the year:

Mobile internet or app?
The App Store absolutley exploded over the past year, with well over 100,000 apps available by the end of the year. The popularity of the App Store had everyone wanting to create an app for their product or brand, but we feel differently. The emergence of the mobile internet over the past year has made web apps every bit as good as apps for promoting and marketing brands and products. I predict that 2010 will be the turning point for the mobile internet and that web apps will become the dominant theme in mobile entering 2011. (For more background, see our mobile internet vs app series from earlier this year)

The rise of Android
Handset manufacturers finally embraced the Google-sponsored platform in 2009, and the arrival of the T-mobile MyTouch, HTC Hero, and Motorola Droid demonstrated the capabilities of the platform. Be prepared for a lot more Android activity in 2010.

Palm excited with the Pre, but botched the execution
Palm tried to recapture the market mojo it had with the Treo, but development kit delays, a poorly arranged exclusivity with the nations’s 3rd largest carrier Sprint, and a losing battle with Apple over iTunes syncing all contributed to the Pre’s less than stellar sales. Palm will try again in 2010 by launching the Palm Pre with Verizon at the upcoming Consumer Electronics Show.

Motorola excited with the Droid, and delivered
Motorola, all but written off for dead in the handset market, created a huge stir with all the ads leading up to the November launch of the Droid. With the help of Verizon, Motorola delivered the best Android, and possible best overall, phone of the year. Sales of the device have been brisk, and customers of the nation’s largest phone network finally got a device to rival the iPhone.

Microsoft continued to fade into oblivion
With a lackluster launch of WinMo 6.5, and further delays to WinMo 7, Microsoft saw further losses in market share. In the court of perception, WinMo is now a distant challenger to Apple, Android and BlackBerry in the smartphone OS battles. Rumor has it that Microsoft is going to link Xbox live to WinMo 7, but that may be too little too late for the much and often maligned Redmond giant.

Battle of the behomeths I: Google vs Apple
Google and Apple started the year on friendly terms, but didn’t finish it that way. It started with Apple’s rejection of the Google Voice app in the App Store, continued with Google CEO Eric Schmidt’s resignation from the Apple board in August, and then continued with a written sparring match with the FCC over the Google Voice rejection. It’s clear that companies once termed “frenemies” can officially drop the ‘fr’ from that title.

Battle of the behomeths II: Verizon vs AT&T
In preparation for its Droid launch, Verizon went straight after AT&T and Apple with a great set of commercials (“There’s a map for that”) and edgy Droid promotional ads. AT&T complained to the government about Verizon’s tactics, before finally relenting and striking back with an ad campaign of its own. The best AT&T could were a few not-so-funny Luke Wilson ads. So thankfully, Apple stepped in defended its most prized possession. I suspect that the end of 2009 was the only the beginning of this battle – I’m sure we’ll see a lot more AT&T/Verizon battles in 2010.

2009 was exciting, so what should we expect in 2010? Here’s a sampling:

• Android rises – Reports have it that 50 or more handsets will be released in 2010 with Android. I expect 2010 to be the year that Android makes a dent in smartphone OS market share and challenges the iPhone for market dominance.
• BlackBerry stagnates – RIM has been on a roll in 2009, but that will end in 2010. An aging product line and recent service woes are going to encourage people to start taking a serious look at Android and other alternatives.
• Google goes “all-in” – Expect Google to use its warchest to make significant moves in the mobile space. Mobile will be bigger than the desktop. Google knows it, and they are not going to sit around and watch someone else dominate it – especially Apple or Microsoft.
• Apple innovates, again – Let’s face it, the iPhone is great, but it is getting stale. A 3+ year old design is ancient in the mobile world. Apple will have something up its sleeve in 2010 – be it a new design, better software options, or a tablet of some sort.
• Nokia struggles to find itself – Nokia, the giant of the mobile industry, is going through an identity crisis. The largest, and most dominant, handset maker in the world is losing mindshare at the high end but still dominates the low end. Can Nokia dominate both ends of the market? I don’t think so, and the sooner Nokia picks which end to focus on, the better off they’ll be.
• Microsoft and Palm flounder – Neither will go away next year, but they’ll both continue bleeding. Microsoft has enough other business interests that it will continue to toil away and try to find an entry point in mobile. For Palm, an acquisition may be in the cards as it cannot continue to lose cash at its current rate and remain independent into 2011.
• Apps lose their luster – With too many app stores and platforms to support, the viability of the app model will erode. Developers will move back to the web and the smartphone app will become an area of specialty development focused on games – web apps and the mobile internet will fill the void.
• Expect the unexpected – In an explosive market like mobile, expect at least two or three things to happen that will be serious game changers that no one sees coming. Augmented reality, location-based services, and geo-targeted advertising come to mind, but I get the feeling there are a couple more ideas in mobile that will surprise us in 2010.

Thanks to everyone who followed and supported us in 2009. It’s been a great ride thus far, and we’re looking forward to a fun and exciting 2010.

Best wishes to all for a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2010.

Now that the dust has settled around the announcement and I’ve had a few days to ponder it, here are 7 predictions on how it will impact the US mobile market.

Prediction #1: With Google’s help, Verizon will develop specific Android features for handset manufacturers to implement.
It’s no secret that Verizon likes to control a phone’s features to preserve network functionality and upcharge users for enhanced features. With Android, Verizon can create a set of features that handset manufacturers will have to include in order get on Verizon’s network. In essence, Android allows Verizon to exert more control over the handset manufacturers with less effort required. Since Android is open source, Verizon could implement these features without a Google partnership, but a close relationship with Google will give them more insight int0 how special features can be implemented.

Prediction #2: Verizon will not fully embrace Android’s open source model
As an open source platform, there is a lot one can do with Android. Given their history, and despite their comments to the press, Verizon must be uncomfortable with the amount of customization that one can do with an Android handset. I’m betting Verizon won’t cripple Android, but it will push the envelop on limiting Android functionality. In other words, while Verizon’s Android handsets will be open source, don’t expect them to be as open source as those you’ll find on other networks like T-mobile.

Prediction#3: Verizon will open its own Android app store
Given the news I’ve seen on Verizon developer conferences and the ability to customize the OS, the short answer is yes. I envision Verizon customizing Android to work seamlessly with its own app store, similar to Apple’s iPhone App Store. Verizon wants to copy the revenue stream and stickiness factor the App Store brings to the iPhone (and by association, AT&T).

Prediction #4: Google will leave it to Verizon and handset manufacturers to promote Android
A large portion of the iPhone’s success is based on Apple’s marketing machine. I’m amazed by how many people are stunned when they realize that iPhone market share is less than 5% in the US. Based on the iPhone commercials, you would think it is well over 50%. Google could help Android’s cause by starting its own advertising blitz. However, since Android is spread across so many carriers and manufacturers, I don’t see Google advertising a particular handset or carrier. Android will be left to Verizon and the handset manufacturers to promote.

Prediction #5: AT&T will not embrace Android
AT&T will release Android handsets, but only because the handset manufacturers are making them. However, as we all know, there is no love lost between AT&T and Google (read the latest on AT&T vs Google over Google Voice). Unless Android becomes the dominant mobile OS, or Verizon starts to make a killing with its Android app store, I don’t see AT&T helping Google promote or encourage the use of Android.

Prediction #6: Verizon will walk away from the iPhone
With this announcement, it appears that Verizon is walking away from the iPhone. While it would seem like putting the iPhone on the Verizon network would be a major win for everyone (Verizon, Apple and users), I get the feeling Verizon doesn’t want to play by Apple’s rules and vice-versa. With Google, Verizon has a partner that needs them more than Apple does in the mobile market. Plus, Google is way more willing than Apple to allow Verizon to customize the OS for their needs. The Google partnership effectively kills the possibility of the iPhone showing up on Verizon anytime soon. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news for iPhone users that are suffering with the AT&T network.

Prediction #7: T-mobile and Sprint will move toward an even more data centric mobile model
The logical thing for T-mobile and Sprint would be to merge and find an OS they can partner with. The problem with a merger is that it would be near impossible to pull off because of the differences in the two carriers network technologies (T-mobile uses GSM, Sprint uses CDMA). As for operating systems, the only attractive partner is RIM (BlackBerry). Both Windows Mobile and WebOS (Palm) are bleeding market share, and Nokia with its Symbian and Maemo operating systems has been irrelevant in the US for at least 5 years. RIM has achieved its success by making handsets widely available on every carrier, so I doubt either carrier could pull off a deal with RIM. In the end, T-mobile and Sprint need not panic – they can still compete. Their independence will give them unfettered access to the latest handset technologies.  Since neither carrier has to worry about an existing wireline or voice business to protect, they can attract customers by introducing data-centric plans, handsets and network features.

Whether or not these predictions come true are not the most important part of the Verizon/Google partnership. The significance of the announcement is that it sets up a mobile “Clash of the Titans”, and when companies compete, the true winners end up being the consumers. I am excited to see heated competition in the wireless market and am looking forward to better handsets, better networks and more features for the same price.

These numbers indicate how bloated and unusable the App Store has become for product marketers. It is so crowded that it has become impossible for companies to get their apps noticed, unless they have the resources for an expensive promotional campaign through traditional channels. In other words, if you release an app just “to have an app”, you’d be better off spending your resources elsewhere. In fact, the only thing this release tells me is that Apple will continue to build the hype because they get 30% of the proceeds from paid app downloads. They are highly motivated to promote the App Store.

So if you want your brand to go mobile, how do you do it?
Simple – develop for the mobile internet.

Our position on the mobile internet versus applications has been well documented. I would encourage you to take a look at some of our previous articles on the subject. And for companies, I would urge them to beware the hype. The siren song of Apple’s marketing machine is powerful, but the companies who resist it and embrace the mobile internet will be the ones whose brand will have the lead in the mobile environment going forward. According to Google, they believe “the mobile Web will be vital in future app development because it is becoming too expensive to support and create programs for a wide variety of mobile platforms.”

See these articles from Aumnia for related information:
The App Store model is broken
Mobile web or app? – The Great Mobile Debate (a 5-part series)
Are Smartphone applications technology progression or regression

Hot off of last week, Google’s Android-buzz continued this week.  Motorola announced that pre-orders for the Cliq will begin on October 19^th and they are looking to bring Android to more carriers in the US.  In addition to Motorola, INQ announced Android for their upcoming touchscreen handsets, and after lots of rumors, LG finally unveiled its first Android-based phone.  With all these handsets coming to the marketplace, I have to believe and bet on Google gaining significant marketshare fairly quickly. 

And once again, there is more app store news.  Yippee! (sarcasm).  I decided that this week I will get off my soapbox and not preach about web-apps vs. downloadable apps, so here are the announcements this week without my bias:

• Samsung Apps mobile application storefront now open
• Paid Apps for Palm App Catalog coming September 24th?
• Google Releases Android Donut
• Apps hot right now, but mobile Web will win: digiday panelist

OK, so that last one wasn’t really a news item about the app stores but I can’t leave you without giving you something to think about.

As always, here are some other stories and news from this week I think you’ll find interesting:

• Sprint and T-Mobile sitting in a (merger) tree?
• Sprint’s Hesse Mum on Consolidation Rumors
• Palm Pixi specs pour out
• VeriSign reports single-quarter mobile messaging record of 94.8B
• Palm Abandoning WinMO Amid Sluggish Sales of Pre
• HTC Leo spotted in the wild, sports gargantuan 800 x 480 display

Please don’t be shy and leave your opinion below so all our readers can enjoy.

• Two days before Moto’s Android event, two handsets unearthed
• Motorola CLIQ: first hands-on impressions (update: with video)
• LG Etna Android phone sneaks onto the scene at IFA
• HTC Tattoo (aka, Click) brings Android, Sense UI to all
• Samsung I5700 Galaxy Lite
• Android Battle: CLIQ edition
• Archos Android Phone Coming Early Next Year
• INQ Goes Android by Next Year
• Android Market Now Over 10,000 Applications Strong
• Google’s Andy Rubin On Android, the Motorola Cliq and App Dev

I had a hard time focusing on any other mobile news this week while I watched the Android “marching band” fill up my reader.  A couple of other stories did catch my attention, but I feel like a broker record even bringing them up.  I’ll do it anyways.  Apple continued with their 20-year old strategy by piling more bricks around the iPhone’s walled garden.  In one of my previous weekly wrap-ups, I mentioned a Commodore 64 emulator that Apple rejected from the app store that attracted lots of negative attention from the development community.  Well this week Apple approved the Commodore 64 emulator … and then pulled it again.  And then, in an on-going soap opera between Palm and Apple, the latest iTunes 9 release breaks the Palm Pre’s media sync (again).  I feel like I’m watching 2 kids fighting over a swing in the playground but forgot to look around and see that there are 1000 open swings next to them.  I really want to believe that Apple isn’t making the same mistakes they did in the past.  Maybe they have something big up their sleeve and will release the iPhone OS to the open source community.  A guy can dream can’t he…

 Here are other stories and articles I thought you might enjoy from this week:

• This isn’t going to end well: NTT Docomo to enter the US cell phone market next year
• T-Mobile BlackBerry Onyx press image leaks out
• T-Mobile 3G Data Will Hit 21Mbps In 2010
• Sprint’s Palm Pre Drops to $100, At Least For New Recruits
• CE-Oh no he didn’t! Part LXII: Steve Ballmer publicly ridicules Microsoft employee with iPhone, threatens to smash it

Please leave a comment below with any interesting mobile news you want to share with our readers.  We always welcome your opinion.

1. The Price of Protection
In order to keep the phone safe from things like viruses, crashing, and resource contention, all the apps in the App Store have to go through a stringent approval process. During this same approval process, content is also reviewed to make sure it is appropriate for the phone. The problem is a very subjective approval process. For example, Google Voice and an app for a book with proceeds going to charity get rejected, yet a “booty-shaking” app is approved. Go figure.

2. A Needle in a Haystack
Think 65,000 apps is a good thing? Then think again. If you release an app, how does anyone find it. This has led to people writing stories on what you have to do to promote your app in order to get noticed. People often put it on their website so one can find it. Hmm, that makes sense – I’ll put the app on my website so people can find and download it. Shouldn’t I just create a mobile website to begin with? At least your mobile website will benefit from any SEO efforts that you use on your online website. For an app, you’re on your own. An app has to have its own promotion strategy since the search engines don’t index the App Stores.

3. Everyone has an iPhone, don’t they?
Based on the hype, you would think that everyone has an iPhone. The answer is that around 3% of the mobile users in the US have an iPhone – that’s how much exposure you get with an iPhone app, provided people can find it AND download it. What? You want to increase the reach of your app? Then you need to redesign it for BlackBerry, Android, Windows Mobile, Palm, Nokia, and Samsung, with more App Stores planned. Or you can design a web-based app once and cover every platform all at once. It’s not hard to figure out which model is more efficient.

4. The Elephant in the Room
Ah, the thing no one wants to talk about: upgrading. What happens when the iPhone gets upgraded? Is Apple testing each of the 65,000 apps to make sure they still work – I don’t think so. What about BlackBerry, Android and Windows Mobile? Yes, the hardware and operating systems of the phones change, and there is no guarantee that your app will still work when it does. Plus, when users change their handset, there is no guarantee that they will redownload your app. Given that the average user upgrade cycle is 18-24 months, there is a pretty good chance that your app will not survive the user upgrade cycle., resulting in a very short-term effect.

So what is one to do. Well, as I’ve discussed before, apps won’t die, but they will get relegated to specialized functions. If I have a cool app that takes advantages of specific features on a particular phone, such as advanced graphics for a game, or shaking to transfer content from one device to another, sure I’d do an app, and I’d even charge for it. On the other hand, if I’m a business trying to promote my brand and product or have an app that does not access to specialized phone resources or features, then I am doing a mobile website, or what I would call a web-app (an application that runs over the web for all mobile phones). Why should I limit myself to one platform, submit to the unknown powers that control its App Store, and risk not surviving the upgrade cycle?

Ultimately, the misgivings of the App Store will cause apps to lose their glow, resulting in a lot less hype. It can’t happen soon enough so I can go back to watching Sunday sports in peace.

•  Apple beginning to view Google as competition?
•  Is the iPhone causing Apple to lose the plot?
• I Quit The iPhone

All I can say is … OUCH!  I’ve been saying for a while that Apple is making strategic mistakes similar to what they did in personal computing.  It’s only a matter of time before the masses see what the experts are saying.

What’s most interesting with the latest Apple developments is that they are going head-to-head against Google.  But wait, aren’t they everyone’s two favorite companies?  Shouldn’t they get along so all of us can be happy?  Nope.  Google is making a strong push into mobile which threatens Apple since they share the same cult followers and now users will have to pick between the companies.  Who would you pick?  My vote is for Google because they are doing mobile the right way.  They’ve enabled multiple handset manufacturers to build phones and let consumers choose a device that fits their lifestyle.  They have a strong OS designed to support cloud-based apps.  They are not controlling content.  Here are some articles on positive steps Google is taking in the market:

• Pigs Fly As Facebook And Google Work Together On An Android App
• Hesse confirms Sprint will have an Android device this year, maybe more
• HTC Hero / T-Mobile G2 Touch Android smartphone review

Over the next year, I predict that we’ll see Apple and Google become bigger rivals and when these two juggernauts go to battle, it means only one thing… goodness for us consumers!

Earning season continues with Verizon and Sprint reporting this week.  Verizon saw a drop in their profit but added 1.1 million wireless customers.  They also said that the Palm Pre will be out on Verizon and that they are launching an app store.  Sprint struggled again last quarter, reporting a drop in earnings and lost 250,000 customers but it seems their decline has slowed down after they released the Pre.  Sprint also announced this week their intention to purchase Virgin Mobile for $483 million, to add to their pre-paid business.   This move to focus on pre-paid business might make sense with the Palm Pre becoming available on Verizon, opening the door for more customers to jump ship. 

As always, here are other stories and news I found interesting during the week:

• Windows is supposedly re-branding Windows Mobile to “Windows Phone”.  Seriously?  Why not just call it the wPhone.  The brand managers at Windows need to be fired immediately!
• An interesting study on mobile web usage and how it’s not confined to smartphones alone.  Goes to show that the world still isn’t centered around iPhones, BlackBerry, Palm and Android.
• AT&T launches an all-in-one social networking application
• Juniper Research predicts 20 billion applications downloads per year by 2014.  I don’t agree with their analysis since I think that cloud-based apps will take over to ease cross-platform compatibility, so app downloads will actually slow down in a couple years.

In reference to the last item above, Gregg just released a 5-part blog series that discusses the Mobile web vs. app debate. Anyone interested in mobile apps should read all five articles as they provide excellent insight and analysis.

The biggest question in the mobile web vs app debate is who will win?

Based on the items that I have discussed throughout this series, the winner will be the mobile web. The power of flexibility, the ability to design once for multiple handsets, the open nature of the web, the control over content, and the reduced costs of maintenance and promotion will lead developers to push more and more functionality to the mobile web. For users, the ability to freely move between handsets and carriers, as well as to have a seamless experience between their desktop and mobile device, will also lead users to favor the mobile web over apps.

However, the road to mobile web victory will not occur without a few hiccups. Clearly, there are issues with the mobile internet today that have enabled mobile apps to take the early lead in this contest. A recent study on mobile web usability highlighted the issues with the current state of the mobile internet. It was no surprise that small screens, awkward input, download delays, and poorly designed sites are the primary issues. All of these things, though, are being addressed. Download delays are being addressed by improvements in the carriers’ networks. Awkward input is being addressed by new handsets with user interfaces that simplify navigation. Small screens and poorly designed sites are being addressed by companies optimizing their sites for mobile – either on their own or with the help of outside products and services. As these issues with the mobile internet fade, the mobile web will gain momentum and move ahead of apps as the primary means of mobile interaction.

I do not expect apps to go quietly though. As pointed out in an earlier article in the series, the manufacturers and carriers do not want the app gravy train to end. Apps provide an income source for these groups as well as reduce their burden of building new, faster networks or better, more usable handsets. They will fight the inevitable, putting more resources into marketing programs that sing the praises of apps and play down the mobile internet.

But history has taught us a valuable lesson, and all one has to do is look at the desktop PC market to see it. Web-based apps have clearly won against local apps on the desktop. Sure many companies fought the transition, but the lower costs of web-based applications, the ability to access your data wherever you need it, the security of data back-up on enterprise-class servers, and the flexibility to change hardware without impacting data and apps won out. The consumer chose the better option, and the companies that fought it were forced to follow. I don’t see any reasons why the mobile environment won’t play out the same way – the consumers will speak and the companies will need to follow.

So does this means that apps are dead? No, it does not. Apps will still have a role in the mobile environment. Just as on the desktop, there is certain functionality in the mobile environment that is best served through an app. For example, to do intensive gaming, where the capabilities and specifications of the hardware matter, an app makes more sense. Apps will fill a niche in the mobile environment going forward, and one that could be a potentially lucrative niche as gaming has proven on the PC. However, for the vast majority of interactions in the mobile environment, the mobile web will dominate.

Today there is a great debate between the mobile web and apps, but as the mobile web matures, the next  couple of years will be the transition period when the mobile web overtakes apps as the dominant method of interation in the mobile environment.