Mobile Market Wrap-Up, August 30

Things were a bit busy last week, and I’m still catching up on general happenings in the industry. A couple of items that caught my attention were the release of Mozilla’s mobile browser, codenamed Fennec, and the intention of Skyfire to release a version of their browser for the iPhone.

Why did these catch my attention? Well, earlier this year, Opera created quite a stir when it released its Opera Mini browser for the iPhone and then goaded Apple into approving it. Tech punidits were certain that Apple would reject it, but they didn’t. In hindsight, I’m not surprised.

I’ve used the Opera Mini browser on Android and seen it on the iPhone, and while it’s capable, it is not a replacement for the built-in browser. Over the last year, the stock Android browser has come a long way, and Safari for the iPhone has always been a good browser. Opera Mini can’t compete with either of these, and neither will Fennec or Skyfire.

The opportunity for third party browsers has passed. Today’s problem is not compressing web content for the mobile environment. The issue is providing the user with a relevant user experience over the mobile web. What do I mean by a relevant user experience? I mean a mobile website that takes advantage of the features of a mobile phone, such as the touchscreen and location-based capabilities, to present information and content that a user cares about when they’re mobile. For a real estate mobilesite it is searching for properties, for retail it is nearest locations and coupons, for restaurants it is reservations, directions and special offers. The point I’m making is pretty obvious: it’s not about trying to cram a website designed for a 24″ screen onto a 3″ screen, it’s about presenting content relevant to the mobile consumer in a usable manner.

Put simply, it’s not about the browser, it’s about the presentation of the content.

So while I am sure that the mobile browser technology from Mozilla, Skyfire, and Opera is top notch, my advice would be to stick with the stock browsers on your smartphone with one caveat. If your using a BlackBerry other than the Torch, any one of these three browsers is a huge step up from the old BlackBerry browser. The old BlackBerry browser can be summed up in one word – AWEFUL!

OK, enough of the rant. On a lighter note, a new smartphone app caught my eye this week called Bartab. It allows you to send an actual drink to a friend for a $1. You spend $1 to send your friend a mobile coupon for a drink that they redeem at the participating bar you specify. Your friend then has to pay an additional $1 to redeem the coupon. It’s been launched in New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles. I haven’t had a chance to use it yet, but I’d love to hear from anyone who has. In particular, does it work as advertised?

The Verizon iPhone Winner: Android

Rumors of a Verzion iPhone are never ending, and they are reaching an even higher crescendo this summer. The latest rumor is that the iPhone is going through field testing on the Verizon network and that they’re ironing out the business details. There have also been lots of other interesting signs this summer – AT&T cozying up with Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7, Apple ordering CDMA parts, and exclusivity-ending statements in AT&T filings with the SEC.

The prevailing opinion is that Verizon will help Apple sell a lot more iPhones. While I am sure that there would be an opening weekend feeding frenzy for the devices, I don’t see Apple as the big winner – Android will be.

Why?

1. The iPhone is a shiny object
Apple is exactly what Verizon wants to lure more people into its stores. Once there, they will see lots of great phones, Android phones: the Droid Incredible, the Droid X, the Fascinate, and the Droid 2. All of these devices can hold their own with the iPhone. Plus most of these phones will be cheaper than the iPhone. I’m willing to bet a lot of casual buyers will get drawn into a Verizon store because of the iPhone but leave with an Android device.

2. Verizon’s bait-and-switch strategy
Verizon will heavily market the iPhone to draw people into their stores, but once there, people will see signs pushing Android, and lots of them. Verizon has clearly aligned itself with Google. Verizon and Google’s joint net neutrality proposal and rumors of a Google Chrome tablet exclusive for Verizon should indicate who Verizon’s real partner is.

3. Just another face in the crowd
At an AT&T store, the best device was an iPhone, hands down. Not the case in the Verizon store. Instead of being the top dog, the iPhone will be just another smartphone. In fact, people will notice greater diversity with Android handsets with regards to form factor and screen size as well as features like a slide out keyboard. Android offers a lot more versatility over the one-size-fits-all iPhone approach.

4. There’s no reason to wait
If someone really wanted the iPhone, they should already have it from AT&T. Sure AT&T service on the iPhone is poor, but people who want the iPhone  have already moved past that and just sucked it up – they’ve had four years to switch carriers. The only place there could be some pent-up demand is on corporate Verizon accounts where it was cost prohibitive for people to switch.

5. New customers, but only for Verizon
The majority of people who want the iPhone on Verizon want to switch from AT&T. A recent study showed that 1 in 3 AT&T iPhone users want to switch. I believe this is the same group who are feeding the rumors as well. They must think that if they wish it hard enough, Verizon will pick up the iPhone and give them freedom from AT&T. In fact, if the Verizon iPhone winner is Android, the loser is AT&T.

The bottom line – it’s inevitable that the iPhone, or an Apple equivalent, will make it to Verizon. It would be silly for Apple not to let it happen. If I was Google, I wouldn’t be concerned. In fact, I’d relish it. It will only fuel Android’s rapid growth.

Mobile Market Wrap-up, August 23

As usual, there were lots of interesting stories in mobile last week. In particular, I found a couple of annoucements on the gaming front very interesting.

To start off, Microsoft announced the line up of Xbox Live games that would be available on their mobile Windows Phone 7 platform. I don’t play Xbox (Playstation is my platform of choice), so I couldn’t tell you if the game list is interesting or not. However, what I do find interesting is Microsoft’s mobile strategy. It appears that Microsoft is going to tie its mobile success to the Xbox platform. I wouldn’t call this a genius strategy as much as I would consider it a high risk bet. In my opinion, Microsoft has already lost this round of the mobile OS game to RIM for the enterprise, Apple for the high end, and Android for the general consumer. Since no one has gone after the hardcore gamer, Microsoft is filling an underserved niche to build a loyal following. On the other hand, it will take time and lots of resources, i.e. money, to grow the niche. Given Microsoft’s deep pockets, they are one of the few companies that can pull it off, and I like the fact that they are going after a niche in the market rather than trying to immediately compete head to head with Apple, Google and RIM, although I am sure they will end up there soon enough.

Behind the Microsoft announcement, rumors were leaked that Sony is working on an Android-based Playstation mobile phone. Adding phone capability is the next logical move for the PSP, and not because people want to use it as a phone. It is for the over the air download capability and the social gaming aspects that can occur using the mobile network as its backbone. Given Microsoft’s moves with its Xbox/Windows Phone 7 platform, Sony must do this, and quickly, to keep from losing customers and market share in the highly lucrative gaming console market. Of course, all of this could become a moot point if Google and Verizon get their way and regulate traffic on the mobile internet (OK – I’ll admit that last comment was a bit tongue-in-cheek, but I couldn’t resisit).

Finally, to wrap-up this week on a gaming note, Mashable pointed out 10 classic PC games that have been reborn on the iPhone. I was a bit surprised by how many of them I recognized, and played! It brought back memories of my college days and made me wonder how me and my college roommates ever graduated! Take a look and let me know which games you recognize and which was your favorite. Just for the record, mine would be Prince of Persia, although Doom runs a close second.

Mobile Market Wrap-Up, August 16

Yes, I’m a day late this week, but you know how it goes. It’s been one of those weeks – already!

Following up on last week’s statistics, two more interesting reports were released last week. The first I’d like to highlight is from Chetan Sharma, a consultant in the mobile industry. He reports on mobile statistics quarterly, and his latest report indicated that mobile phone penetration is the US is nearing 100%. The number needs to be taken with a grain of salt as a lot of people these days are carrying two phones (me included), so the real number is likely lower – probably around 75-80%. Still yet, even at 80%, it’s clear that the mobile market in the US is nearing saturation and that brands and companies who do not have a mobile marketing strategy are missing out on a great opportunity to connect with consumers.

The other interesting report was released by the Gartner Group. The first statistic to highlight from the report is that mobile device sales grew 13.8% last quarter, so the market is definitely healthy and growing. A more telling statistic was that Android surpassed the iPhone in units sold worldwide last quarter, and outsold RIM in the US. As I pointed out in last week’s wrap-up, Android just keeps on rolling. Units sold is a clear trend of future overall marketshare, so I would expect to see Android make more gains in overall handset marketshare in the coming quarters.

Speaking of Android, two new Android handsets of note were released last week – the Motorola Droid 2 on Verizon and the Dell Streak on AT&T. The Droid 2 is a refresh of the original Droid while the Streak is an interesting “hybrid” device. I say “hybrid” because it sports a 5″ screen which makes it much larger than what people consider a phone but smaller than the new tablet form factor established by the iPad. It seems like an awkward tweener size, so I’m expecting it to be a device people will use a companion to a simple flip phone rather than their primary device. Either way, the diversity of Android devices in terms of screen sizes, features and form factors is exactly why Android is dominating the market. As opposed to the one size fits all Apple approach and the flavor of the month QWERTY keyboard BlackBerry approach, Android devices are available in all sorts of shapes and sizes at all types of price ranges. It’s easy to find an Android device that has the features you want to fit your budget.

Finally for this week is a fun survey that was released by dating site OK Cupid. The survey talks about how to make yourself look more attractive in digital photos (seems like it would be important for online dating). So what does this have to do with mobile? Well, about halfway down the page is a claim that iPhone users have more sex than Android and BlackBerry owners. So here’s the question, are the results of the survey accurate, or do iPhone users just tend to stretch the truth more than their smartphone counterparts?

Mobile Market Wrap-up, August 9

Last week was a big week for mobile industry statistics, with multiple reports released. There was one common theme in all of them – Android is growing rapidly! In fact, one report pegged the year-over-year growth at 886%!!! It’s pretty obvious that Google’s mobile strategy is paying off, as not only is it dominant in the mobile search market (as I pointed out last week), but it’s also making huge gains on the OS side. What’s most interesting is that while Android is gaining market share, a report from Nielsen shows that the iPhone is still the most desirable handset out there. Personally, I’m fascinated by the Android-iPhone battle. Google is taking an “arms dealer” approach to Android by giving any handset manufacturer who wants it a platform to build a smartphone.  Apple, on the other hand, is targeting the market carefully and controlling all aspects of the user experience. The result so far is that Android is winning the battle for market share, but Apple is winning the battle for mindshare and profits, at least for now. I’m interested to see if Apple can continue to rake in the profits as Android gains market share. Something tells me Apple is repeating the mistakes they made in the early days of the PC market, although people keep telling me it’s different this time. I’m not sure I buy it….

One company that is seeing declines in market share is RIM with their BlackBerry platform. BlackBerry has been the dominant smartphone in the US for what seems like forever. However, unless you are addicted to email or are a business user, BlackBerry’s hardware and overall user experience lags behind the iPhone and Android. As BlackBerry users are coming off contract, it’s obvious they are switching platforms. BlackBerry attempted to stem their losses with last week’s launch of the BlackBerry Torch 9800. While it closed the gap on features, it still does not put it on the same level as the iPhone or Android. At this point, RIM needs to stay focused on its bread and butter, the enterprise. As I pointed out in an article last week, RIM cannot serve both enterprise users and consumers with the same platform. They have a dominant position in the enterprise that they need to protect. So while the consumer market is where all the media attention is, RIM needs to stay focused on who’s paying their bills.

In the end, I see Android winning the market share game by dominating the middle and low end of the smartphone market, Apple winning the high end of the market, which is the most profitable, and RIM winning the enterprise. Left on the outside looking in are Nokia, Microsoft and HP. I’m not so sure that any of these three can carve out a piece of the market as I don’t think the smartphone is big enough, at least today, to support more than three strong companies.

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Mobile Market Wrap-Up, August 2

Mobile news wrap-up for August 2: Strategy Analytics releases worldwide mobile phone market share numbers for Q2, Google dominates mobile search, and did AT&T signal the end to iPhone exclusivity?

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